Stormy sky

When will surveys disappear? (2017 update)

Back in 2010 ,I caused a minor stir in the research world by predicting (at the MRS Conference in London) that surveys would have disappeared in 20 years (i.e. by 2030). This prediction was put into wider circulation when I clarified […]

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Most Predictions Are Wrong, So Let’s Keep Making Them

Posted by Ray Poynter, 11 January 2017 The researcher and author Philip Tetlock has been researching predictions since the 1980s and has concluded that most predictions fail, that most experts do worse than a chimp with pin (i.e. worse than […]